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SwedenCape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly water level
River gauge, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, United States
Right now
Low for late October
Water level
- Flow
- 937 cfs
History
20252026
The forecast expects the river to fall to 14.80 ft by Wednesday, October 21 at 02:00 AM. Issued Tuesday, October 20 at 10:40 AM by NOAA National Weather Service.
What this means
The Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly is running below normal at 14.82 ft.
The median for late October is 15.46 ft, based on 33 years of readings, so the river stage is 0.64 ft below typical. It is 9.18 ft below the flood stage of 24.00 ft. On the same day last year the reading was 14.92 ft, a difference of −0.10 ft.
It has barely moved over the past 24 hours. The forecast expects the river to fall to 14.80 ft by Wednesday, October 21 at 02:00 AM. Without real rain upstream, that is unlikely to change quickly. In the last month it has stayed between 14.65 ft and 15.12 ft.
Compared with 33 years of daily readings for this time of year. How to read levels
Key numbers
- Median for this date
- 15.46 ft0.64 ft below the median for this date
- Normal for this date
- 14.78 ft – 18.67 ft8 years in 10 fall in this range (33 years of records)
- Same day last year
- 14.92 ft−0.10 ft
- Lowest and highest in 30 days
- 14.65 ft – 15.12 ft
- Lowest and highest in 12 months
- 14.28 ft – 17.42 ft
- Highest on record
- 30.68 ftSeptember 21, 2018
- Lowest on record
- 13.97 ftAugust 10, 2002
- Forecast peak
- 14.80 ftWednesday, October 21 at 02:00 AM
Floating and fishing near Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly
Low water exposes gravel bars that make good wading access, but some boat ramps may be left high and dry.
Flood stage here is 24.00 ft, 9.18 ft above the current reading. Beyond it, the National Weather Service also defines moderate and major flood stages.
What happens at each level
- 30.00 ft
- Flooding similar to Hurricane Florence in 2018. Highway 11 between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road near Kelly will be flooded. The Canetuck area may be flooded. Several roads near Kelly and Canetuck may be flooded. The railroad between Navassa and Wilmington may flood as the crest works downstream and moderate or higher tidal flooding will occur at downtown Wilmington within a week of the crest at Lock 1.
- 28.00 ft
- Flooding similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Highway 11 between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road near Kelly will be flooded. The Canetuck area may be flooded especially if the Black River is also flooding. The railroad between Navassa and Wilmington may flood as the crest works downstream and moderate or higher tidal flooding will occur at downtown Wilmington within a week of the crest at Lock 1.
- 26.00 ft
- Highway 11 will begin to flood between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road. Other roads near Kelly and Canetuck may flood. Moderate flooding of swamps and low lands. Flooding similar to that reached with the remnants of Hurricane Hilda in 1964.
- 24.00 ft
- 24 Water will top the lock at Lock and Dam 1 near Kelly. Widespread lowland flooding will occur along the river. North Elwell Ferry Road will be flooded on both sites of the river near the ferry landing.
- 20.00 ft
- North Elwell Ferry Road will likely be flooded north of the river near the ferry landing. Lowland flooding along the river.
- 19.00 ft
- North Elwell Ferry Road will begin to flood north of the river near the ferry landing. Lowland flooding along the river.
- 14.82 ft
- Right now
Impact statements from the U.S. National Weather Service.
Highest crests on record
Chance of at least minor flooding in October to December: < 5 %.
| Rank | Level | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30.68 ft | September 21, 2018 |
| 2 | 28.58 ft | October 13, 2016 |
| 3 | 24.92 ft | March 3, 1979 |
| 4 | 24.90 ft | September 12, 1996 |
| 5 | 24.77 ft | February 8, 1973 |
| 6 | 24.30 ft | July 21, 1975 |
| 7 | 24.20 ft | April 6, 1973 |
| 8 | 24.16 ft | March 24, 1998 |
| 9 | 23.92 ft | August 13, 2024 |
| 10 | 23.75 ft | November 19, 2018 |
Weather at the gauge
No rain in the last 3 days.
Forecast: Open-Meteo
Map
Other gauges on the Cape Fear River
| Gauge | Level | Compared with normal | 24 hours | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Fear River at LillingtonRiver gauge, Cape Fear River | 2.05 ft | Normal | −0.07 ft | 75 mi |
| Cape Fear River at FayettevilleRiver gauge, Cape Fear River | 9.72 ft | Low | −0.04 ft | 55 mi |
| Cape Fear River at Wilm O Huske Lock near TarheelRiver gauge, Cape Fear River | 1.26 ft | Low | −0.03 ft | 42 mi |
Nearby gauges
| Gauge | Level | Compared with normal | 24 hours | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black River near TomahawkRiver gauge, Black River | 2.21 ft | Low | −0.11 ft | 24 mi |
| Waccamaw River at FreelandRiver gauge, Waccamaw River | 1.96 ft | Low | −0.08 ft | 26 mi |
| Northeast Cape Fear River near BurgawRiver gauge, Northeast Cape Fear River | 2.60 ft | Normal | +0.27 ft | 27 mi |
| Big Swamp near Tar HeelRiver gauge, Big Swamp | 5.22 ft | Low | −0.11 ft | 37 mi |
| Lumber River at BoardmanRiver gauge, Lumber River | 2.56 ft | Very low | −0.12 ft | 38 mi |
| Northeast Cape Fear River near ChinquapinRiver gauge, Northeast Cape Fear River | 2.08 ft | Low | −0.05 ft | 39 mi |
| Buck Creek near LongsRiver gauge, Buck Creek | 5.35 ft | Low | −0.03 ft | 40 mi |
| Waccamaw River near LongsRiver gauge, Waccamaw River | 1.32 ft | Very low | −0.09 ft | 42 mi |
Questions and answers
Is the Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly higher than last year?
No, it is 0.10 ft lower than on the same day last year, when the reading was 14.92 ft.
What is flood stage for the Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly?
The official flood stage is 24.00 ft. The level is currently 9.18 ft below it.
What is a normal level for the Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly in late October?
The median for late October is 15.46 ft. In 8 years out of 10 the reading falls between 14.78 ft and 18.67 ft, based on 33 years of records.
Is gage height the same as water depth?
No. Gage height is measured from a fixed reference point chosen by the agency, so a reading of 10 ft does not mean the river is 10 ft deep.
What is the water level of Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly today?
On Oct 21, 2026, 04:45 AM EDT, the water level was 14.82 ft. Steady over the last 24 hours.
Is Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly rising or falling?
Steady over the last 24 hours. Down 0.22 ft over the last 7 days.
Is the level of Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly normal?
Low for late October. Compared with 33 years of daily readings for this time of year.
For specialists
Station codes, datum, parameters, data quality and downloads
- Operator
- U.S. Geological Survey
- Station code
usgs:02105769(Agency page)- Coordinates
34.40444, -78.29361(WGS84)- Vertical datum
- NAVD88
- Update interval
- every 15 minutes
- Licence
- Public domain. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), provisional data subject to revision
Published series
| Parameter | Last value | Time (UTC) | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water level | 14.82 ft | 2026-10-21 08:45 | Provisional |
| Flow | 937 cfs | 2026-10-21 08:45 | Provisional |
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How to cite
U.S. Geological Survey: Cape Fear River at Lock 1 near Kelly (usgs:02105769). Accessed October 21, 2026 via Nivelmap, https://nivelmap.com/en/united-states/north-carolina/cape-fear-river-at-lock-1-near-kelly
How we check values
Each reading is stored as published. We hold back values that jump faster than physically plausible and show the measurement time with every value.
Readings are provisional, can be delayed or wrong and are not a flood warning. Read the disclaimer